nosce te ipsum (failure at the cave)

I've had people tell me that I should go with my first impression. However, meta-analysis reveals that (in terms of medically related multiple choice questions) I'm more than twice as likely to change a wrong answer to a right one than a right answer to a wrong one. So when I can't make up my mind and someone advises me, "Don't over-think it," what I really hear is "I'm betting on the one-third, not the two-thirds." And that is not a statistically sound decision, my friend.